Bad forecasts for the growth of the world economy, including a contraction in Germany, mean a risk for the export-oriented economies of Central and Eastern Europe, including Slovenia. According to analysts at Erste Group, net exports are unlikely to contribute positively to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024.
High inflation, which continues to put pressure on household incomes in the region, is slowly easing in an environment of high-interest rates. According to Erste Group's report, the slowdown in price growth and real wage growth are strengthening private consumption, which will drive the otherwise small GDP growth.
Real economic growth in the eight countries of the region, which in addition to Slovenia also consists of Croatia, Hungary, Serbia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Romania, will slow down. Last year, it averaged 4.1%, and the estimate for this year is 0.6%, according to the Erste Group report.
In the Czech Republic and Hungary, GDP is expected to shrink in 2023, while in Slovenia, growth of 1.3% is expected - about half as the year before.
Source: Forbes Slovenija